Meanwhile, longtime local residents have cried in vain about wolf depredation on more numerous species like elk. They argue the calf/cow ratio has been devastated by wolves; that the Yellowstone herd is teetering on a population cliff. Further, they argue this devastation is occurring despite assurances in the original wolf introduction plan that such a decline wouldn’t occur.

The original 1990 introduction document was titled “Wolves for Yellowstone? A Report to Congress and the Department of Interior”.  It documented the historical (20 year) calf/cow ratio at 33% average and (based on statistical modeling) argued that wolf introduction wouldn’t significantly reduce this ratio. 

Their statistical model had one major flaw – it only estimated the number of elk killed; without differentiating the type of elk – that wolves tend to selectively prey upon calves – and could potentially decimate a herd by wiping out its “replacement stock” long before the total herd size declined enough to start limiting the number of wolves. 

Is there evidence? Friends of the Northern Yellowstone Elk Herd (FNYEH) has argued that their surveys reveal a calf ratio dropping below 10% -- far below the 30% needed to maintain stable herd populations.

Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) and Park Service surveys paint a different picture -- a calf ratio of 28-29%; only slightly below the 30% target. Yet these surveys are a year or more old, and debate intensifies regarding the accuracy of all game surveys. The bipartisan Legislative Audit Committee (on which I serve) has expressed deep concern, and recently had a near-unanimous vote mandating a performance audit of FWP game census techniques.

I also serve as Vice-Chairman of the House FWP Committee. Because of increasingly dire local reports, and the huge disparity in calf survey numbers, I recently participated firsthand in a census of wintering Yellowstone elk in Paradise Valley. I joined House FWP Committee Chairman Dan Fuchs and FWP Commission Chairman Dan Walker, and we were accompanied by FNYEH Chairman Bob Fanning and lifelong local resident Bill Hoppe. We surveyed nearly 500 elk wintering near Dailey Lake. To ensure accuracy, we had multiple individuals counting the same elk. Results: Our survey revealed a calf ratio of just over 12%  --- far below the original target of 30 to maintain a stable herd!  Shocking, indeed. While this sample is somewhat smaller than Park Service samples, it is far closer than previous news reports that the official survey was 10 or more times larger than our sample. Last year’s official survey totaled 988 cows, our survey – 428 cows. Moreover, calf/cow ratios should remain relatively consistent regardless of the number surveyed.

I believe the Feds must remove the wolf from the Endangered Species List without delay, so that Montana FWP can manage the rapidly exploding wolf populations (now well over 500). The original plan called for de-listing once 30 breeding pairs were established. Wolf Reintroduction chief Ed Bangs admits there are now 46 breeding pairs! He and other wolf officials in Montana agree that it’s time to de-list. But with 46 pairs already, and wolf broods of six or seven pups each, if the Feds continue to stretch out the de-listing process for another 3 years, the elk herds will be demolished. Once the elk, bighorns, and moose are gone; the next items on the menu are domestic sheep and cattle.

Because I’ve dared speak out, pro-wolf enviros will no doubt bombard the papers with letters impugning my intelligence, while spouting reams of data diminishing wolf impact.  But I have very good eyesight and I can certainly count… I know what I saw. And the wolf lobby’s data suffers from a credibility gap --- they’ve violated their own original agreements so many times, that native Montanans are no longer listening to them. They’ve turned the “Boy Who Cried Wolf” upside down -- they’ve cried “No Wolf Problem” so many times that we’ve tuned them out. Those of us who’ve spent our lives in the mountains around Yellowstone see elk populations aging rapidly and headed for a cliff. In our favorite hunting spots, we see limited bighorn and moose populations already decimated.

 Friends of the Northern Yellowstone Elk isn’t a radical “shoot, shovel & shut up” anti-wolf group. They’ve never suggested we totally eradicate wolves. They’ve simply argued that now is the time for the Feds to live up to their original agreement; de-list the wolf from the Endangered List so that Montana FWP can properly manage wolf populations relative to ungulate populations. The original plan called for 78 Yellowstone wolves; we now have at least 200 by some estimates. And the total tri-state wolf population exceeds 700. It can’t wait 3 more years --- by then even the vast elk herd may have followed the sheep and moose into disaster. Sometimes, crying “Wolf!” is a good thing.

(Joe Balyeat is a member of the Montana House of Representatives, representing HD 32 in the Gallatin Valley. He is Chairman of the House Fish, Wildlife, and Parks Committee and a member of the Legislative Audit Committee. He also serves as a Director of the Montana Shooting Sports Association.)