Outdoorsman
have been trying to figure out how to predict deer activity for years.
Hunters want to know how meteorological conditions affect deer so they
can apply tree things: I. when deer are most active; 2. where to find deer,
and 3. when the rut occurs. There are several game activity tables on the
market that predict daily deer movement based on the gravitational forces
and position of the moon in relation to the earth's latitude and longitude.
There are other tables that predict when deer should be most active each
month based on the amount of light, the position, and other factors of
the moon. There are also a number of writers and deer researchers using
the moon to predict when the rut should occur. Their predictions are based
on the belief that the amount of light from the moon affects the estrus
cycles of white-tailed deer.
Deer Research
I have spent the last eight years researching deer activity, meteorological
conditions and lunar factors in an effort to find out if the moon really
does affect deer activity. During the study I recorded the daily temperature,
dewpoint, windchill, barometric pressure, wind speed, wind direction, cloud
cover and type and amount of precipitation. I took note of several lunar
factors, including the position, amount of light, speed and gravitational
pull of the moon. I also recorded the number of deer I saw on an hourly
basis, where I saw them and what they were doing. I also recorded when
rubbing, scraping and breeding occurred. Then I checked the results of
my studies against the findings of several well known deer biologists.
Daily Deer Activity
After I had recorded all my data every year, I looked for a correlation
between the various meteorological and lunar factors and deer activity.
Then I compared findings with several daily game activity tables. What
I found was that many of tables predicted approximately the same days and
times, but because they didn't take into account the daily meteorological
conditions, there were times when no deer were seen at the times predicted.
But that was to be expected, because I knew the weather would affect daily
deer activity. Many of the tables were ineffective, because they didn't
take into account all of the lunar factors that affect when and where deer
are most likely to be active. In order to properly predict deer movement
on an hourly basis you can't rely on just the position and gravitational
pull of the moon.
Monthly Deer Activity
Next I checked my findings against the predictions of the monthly game
activity tables. Because these monthly tables take into account more than
the phase and gravitational pull of the moon, I found that they were effective
at predicting when deer were most active each month. However, I found that
meteorological conditions - the amount of light, temperature, windchill,
wind speed and precipitation - often override any affect the moon might
has on deer. I also found that food availability, the rut and hunting pressure
can override any affect the moon might have on deer.
Rut Activity
To find out if the deer researchers and outdoor writers were right
about when the rut should occur I compared their predictions against the
breeding dates of over 1,600 wild deer. Over the course of eight years,
there was no correlation between the breeding dates of the wild deer and
the dates predicted. I also asked several deer breeders if they thought
the moon influenced when their does were bred. The deer breeders all told
me that their deer bred at approximately the same time each year, and that
there was no correlation with peak breeding and the phase of the moon.
In the spring of 2001 Dr. Karl Miller and several other researchers presented
the results of their study on peak breeding dates at the Southeast Deer
Study Group. After checking the breeding dates of approximately 2,500 whitetail
does, in eleven different states in both the northern and southern United
States, they found no correlation with peak breeding and the phase of the
moon. This leads me to believe that the moon has very little influence
on the timing of the peak of the rut each year.
However, that doesn't mean you can't predict when the rut will occur,
because you can.
Biologists in most states have conducted studies to determine when peak
breeding occurs in their state. What they have found is that whitetail
breeding dates are dependent on the weather and the length of the summer
growing season. The arrival of warm weather and spring rains often determines
how early fawns can be born; the arrival of cold weather and fall rain/snow
often determines how late fawns can be born. The age and size of the fawns
during the fall often determines how many of them survive, which in turn
determines when peak breeding should occur. Because much of the whitetail
range is in the north, where spring comes late and the growing season is
short, the breeding season is short, with the result that peak breeding
must occur at the appropriate time. In general, peak breeding of white-tailed
deer above the 4Oth parallel occurs during the second week of November
- every year. But, the farther south the deer live, the longer the summers
are, and the more difficult it is to predict exactly when peak breeding
occurs. For example peak breeding for deer between the 36th and 40th parallel
may occur anytime from mid-November to mid-December.
Because climatic differences like seasonal rains, floods and droughts,
and warm coastal weathern affect growing seasons, breeding dates vary in
different regions.
Breeding of deer in much of the southeast United States occurs during
November and December.
However, there are several exceptions. Peak breeding of deer along the
lower Mississippi basin in Arkansas and Louisiana may occur in December
and January, so that their fawns are born later, after the spring floods.
In southwest Louisiana peak breeding occurs from mid-September to late
October. Along the Mississippi River Delta, in the Atchafalaya River Basin,
and in the parishes of southeast Louisiana peak breeding occurs in December
and January. Peak breeding in norhthwest and central Louisiana occurs from
mid-October to Mid-November. Deer along the Gulf Coast in Alabama may breed
from December to February. Deer in Florida may breed from July through
February, depending on which geographical region they are in. Deer along
the Atlantic coast in South Carolina and Georgia may breed earlier than
deer farther inland, because coastal areas warm up earlier. Peak breeding
of deer in eastern Texas may occur at the same time as the peak breeding
of deer above the 40th parallel; mid-November to mid-December. Peak breeding
of deer in the southwest United States and northern Mexico, including deer
in northern, southern and western Texas, may breed from mid-November through
Januarv
Conclusions
The best scientific data I have suggests that the phase of the moon
does not influence when peak breeding of white-tailed deer occurs, because
peak breeding is dependent on the climate. This suggests that peak breeding
is triggered by the amount of sunlight, not moonlight. To help hunters
determine when peak breeding occurs in their area I compiled the Rut Dates
Chart, which gives both the breeding season length and peak breeding dates
in most states where whitetails are found.
During my studies I did find a correlation between several different
lunar factors, and peak monthly deer activity, and peak scraping activity.
As a result of this I devised the Moon Indicator, which predicts which
days hunters are most likely to see deer each month; when scraping activity
is most likely to peak each month; and when hunters are most likely to
see daytime breeding activity during the rut.
My studies, and the studies of several other researchers, clearly show
that weather is one of the primary influences on daily deer activity, and
that when it's too hot, too cold, too windy or too wet, the deer probably
won't do what they would normally do. After four years of studying how
the weather affects daily deer activity I devised the Daily Deer Movement
Indicator, which predicts the best times and places to hunt deer each day
based on the weather conditions that day.
| To
List Of T.R. Michels Articles:
T.R. Michels
T.R. Michels is a nationally
recognized big game researcher, speaker and writer. He is the author of
the Whitetail, Elk, Turkey and Goose Addict's Manuals; and the Deer Addict's
Manuals. He is also the innovator of the Moon Indicator, which predicts
peak monthly movement of deer and elk, based on the forces of the moon;
the Daily Deer Movement Indicator, which helps hunters decide when and
where to hunt, based on current meteorological conditions; and the Rut
Phase Indicator, which helps hunters determine the stage of the rut, and
when and where to hunt, by the current deer activity and sign. T.R.'s latest
books, available for 2001, are the Deer Addict's Manual, Volume 7: Hunting
Tactic; the Scrape Addicts Manual; and the Outdoorsman's Cookbook, Volume
1 and 2.
Contact:
T.R. Michels
Trinity Mountain Outdoors
PO Box 284
Wanamingo, MN 55983
507-824-3296
Web: www.TRMichels.com
E-mail: trmichels@yahoo.com |
|
| To
List Of T.R. Michels Articles:
T.R. Michels
T.R. Michels is a nationally
recognized big game researcher, speaker and writer. He is the author of
the series Whitetail, Elk, Turkey and Goose & Deer Addict's Manuals
and the innovator of the Moon Indicator.
T.R.'s latest books, available
for 2001, are the Deer Addict's Manual, Volume 7: Hunting Tactic; the Scrape
Addicts Manual; and the Outdoorsman's Cookbook, Volume 1 and 2.
Contact:
T.R. Michels
Trinity Mountain Outdoors
PO Box 284
Wanamingo, MN 55983
507-824-3296
Web: www.TRMichels.com
E-mail: trmichels@yahoo.com |
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